Monday, October 20, 2008

Bob Krumm's Warnings Defy the Odds and Actual Polls

He warned us. He specifically scolded those on his left (which has to be a large crowd) for telling the truth about the myths of "Joe the Plumber."

The problem for Bob Krumm is that Joe the Plumber is not coming through for John McCain in the very toss-up states that Krumm claims he would:
Check out these great numbers buried in a new Suffolk University poll of Ohio and Missouri, which tests the impact of McCain's frequent claim that Barack Obama wants to pick Joe the Plumber's pocket in order to further his shadowy socialist and redistributionist agenda:
In Ohio, 68 percent of respondents said they recognized "Joe the Plumber," but only 6 percent said that Joe's story will make them more likely to vote McCain; 4 percent were more likely to vote for Obama; and 85 percent were not affected.

A similar finding was recorded in Missouri, where 80 percent had heard of the presidential plumber; 8 percent were more likely to vote McCain; 3 percent more likely to vote Obama; and 86 percent not affected by his story.
That's pretty consistent. In both states -- both Bush states -- all of one-tenth of the voters who know who Joe the Plumber is said it made them more likely to back McCain. And in both states, huge, huge majorities of around 85% say the Joe mentions make no difference.

It's worth pointing out that McCain's "Joe the Plumber" gambit isn't just some throwaway one-off gag. It's a central pillar of McCain's closing argument on the economy, which is likely to decide this election. He invokes Joe at just about every rally. And his campaign even blasted out an email to supporters today asking them to tell the campaign how they are each "Joe the Plumber," with the possibility that the best could end up in an ad!
If McCain is running with Joe the Plumber as his latest ground game, the blue collar symbol does not appear to be working in the states Bob Krumm claims Barack Obama needs to win. It does not even appear to be giving McCain the short-lived bump that he got from Sarah Palin. If he's running with him at a higher media profile, well then, Joe the Plumber just got knocked off that radar by Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama, which is not helpful for McCain (and any distraction that does not help him win, hurts him with 2 weeks to go).

It appears that the only thing that Bob Krumm was correct about was that he warned us. Otherwise, Joe the Plumber is not snaking up any vote-swinging traction in working class Ohio.

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