Friday, June 10, 2005

City Paper Story Further Debunks Urban Myth Of Metro's Outmigration Trend

Earlier this week I exhaustively questioned the urban myth--propounded by conservative bloggers and others who oppose any taxation ever--that higher revenues cause more people to migrate from Metro Nashville to outlying areas.

And then today there is this from the Nashville City Paper further undermining the outmigration myth:
Contributing to downtown Nashville’s recent homeownership trend, Riverfront Apartments will transform into Riverfront Condominiums under a joint partnership between Craighead Development and Andrews Properties.
If more people are migrating out of Metro Nashville, then why would these apartments in north Downtown be converted to condos for people to stay? If taxation were so high that it was driving people to outlying counties, wouldn't demand drop to the point that it would be more feasible just to tear down the apartments and build a parking lot where suburban Titans fans could park at a walkable distance from the Coliseum?


  1. Downtown is a happening place. But these condos being built do not prove that people are not leaving Nashville, no more than my buying a house in Kinston Springs proves that people are leaving. In my case, it has more to do with me being a country boy who feels out of place in the city. If they weren't raising taxes, I'd be gone anyway. If I were young and single and had money (something I have never had) I would probably buy one of those condos myself.

  2. Nice to see the conservative bloggers branching out beyond the conservative branch of the blogosphere to get different perspectives on issues.

    By themselves the condos do not prove that people are not leaving Nashville. But the downtown district is booming with new residential spaces (the Kress, the Viridian, Harrison Lofts, etc.); the neighborhoods on the north and east ends proximate to Downtown are booming as the west end already has. On our side of our street on our block alone, a builder sold 5 houses within 6 months in 2004 and he sold two more--which he started building after he sold the previous 5--the past month. Right around the corner, construction on Morgan Park Place is scheduled to begin next month and construction on Monroe soon thereafter. The Werthan Lofts are filling up. We cannot keep up with all of the people moving in. It's huge. They're buying single family homes, duplexes, and luxury townhouses.

    And yet, when I read the conservative nay-sayers' blogs about Metro Nashville, I see an anecdote here, a single e-mail there from someone who have said they have had enough of the city. There's no volumes of evidence on the right to support the theory that the city is dying. And if it is, I have to ask, why convert more housing like the Riverside Condos? If people are leaving, it's a waste of money to build more residential space. If the migration is out, then the market would dictate lower prices and/or no new builds to match lower demand.

    But I do not believe in the urban myth of outmigration. I put a link in the first sentence of this post to a previous post that gives the primary reasons why conservatives' "Chicken Little" mentality about Metro Nashville is a myth and a scare tactic.

  3. I don't think either side has really offered up any real statistics. The only way to know whether the "myth" is true is to see what happens to tax revenues. If the conservatives are right, then the tax increases will bring in less revenue. If you are right, then you can tax, tax, tax away and there will be no negative effect on revenue. We'll just have to wait and see. Regardless of all of that, condos downtown will always be attractive to some folks.