Tuesday, July 24, 2007

What This Poll Says To Me

The latest numbers tell me that the combined total of each of the 3 candidates for whom I have considered voting are supported by over half of all of Metro Nashville's likely voters. That's not good for the 2 serious contenders I have either not considered or only remotely considered. The combined total of the 3 is over 30 points ahead of Bob Clement. That is staggering to me, given Mr. Clement's name recognition and network machinery.


  1. Mike - Let's look at two likely scenarios:
    A Clement-Dean run-off: Dean would pick up pretty much all of Briley support, only half of Gentry's and none of Dozier's. If we combine these numbers with the latest City Paper poll he would have only 43%. Clement would pick up all of Dozier's and half of Gentry's, which equals right at 50% and makes him the next mayor.

    Scenario #2 Clement-Gentry run-off:
    Gentry would pick up most of Briley's vote, half of Dean's (remember Dean's own poll said Clement was more than 50% of his supporters 2nd choice) and none of Buck's which equals once again 43%. Clement would pick up all of Dozier's, half (if not more) of Dean's and none of Briley's and once again it is Mayor Clement.

    Sorry Mike, but this is reality.

  2. No Woodrow, it's not reality, just your opinion. And from the looks of things, your knowledge of Metro political connections is quite limited. For instance, the idea that Clement would get all of Dozier's votes is ridiculous. It's not about being conservative, it's the fact that Dozier and Gentry's political bases are grounded in West and North Nashville among many of the same people. Believe me, Dozier people will not jump en masse to Clement. Plenty would go for his opponent. Do some checking around and you'll find the Metro courthouse crowd to which Dozier belongs has little love for Clement.

  3. Anon- Yes, it is my opinion but it is based on very informed polling and on the ground information. Clement has always been very popular in the African-American community and will have their full support in a run-off against Dean. Dozier is strongest in south Nashville not west Nashville. The vast majority of Dozier's supporters that vote in the run-off will lean towards Clement, maybe not the small "courthouse clan" you mention.

  4. Dean has injured Metro employees by cutting pensions. Why would they want a guy like that as mayor? I think they will move from Dozier to Clement in a runoff. Also, Dean is known as a buddy of the legal special interest. Again, how does that relate to the poor neighborhoods, schools and infrastructure? If you are NOT a rich lawyer, you will probably go for Clement in runoff. Additionally, the minority vote has little identification with a wealthy, white New England lawyer who has a rich wife and comfortable address. They will certainly go with Clement who has maintained an office at Jefferson Street all during his terms in Congress.